The Rising Costs of the Iraq War Essay Example for Free

The Rising Costs of the Iraq War Essay In the 2003 Budget the government set aside ? 3 billion to cover â€Å"the full costs of the UK’s military obligations† in Iraq [1]. In the past four years the amount allocated to this ‘Special Reserve’ has steadily increased, and with an extra ? 400 million in this year’s Budget the total is now over ? 7. 4 billion. This is in addition to recent increases in general military spending. This briefing investigates the financial costs of the Iraq conflict to the UK taxpayer. It notes a significant opaqueness in the budgeting process as well as the potential for costs to continue to escalate. The financial costs of a war may not be the first consideration. War brings many costs, foremost in lives lost and damaged. However, the decision to involve the UK in the invasion of Iraq had substantial implications for UK public spending. Money spent on the Iraq war and wider ‘war on terror’ represents significant diversions from other government budgets. The lack of transparency in the UK finances is in contrast to the US, where all budgetary proposals must be scrutinised by Congress. Comprehensive information about US military spending is available and has contributed to considerable public debate. The sums spent by the US government are many times those of the UK, and there are a number of projects aimed at publicising the scale of US war spending (e. g. http://costofwar. com). The Special Reserve The 2002 Pre-Budget Report set aside ? 1 billion to enable the armed forces to prepare for the coming invasion of Iraq[2]. By the time of the Budget in March 2003, UK forces were in Iraq. The Chancellor increased the amount to ? 3 billion and it became known as ‘the Special Reserve’[3]. In the 2003 Pre-Budget Report another ? 500 million was added for financial year 2003-04 and a further ? 300 million for 2004-05; bringing the total up to ? 3. 8 billion[4]. While there was no increase in the 2004 Budget Report, another ? 520 million for 2004-05 was announced in the Pre-Budget Report of December that year[5]. The 2005 Budget Report included a further ? 340 million added for 2004-05 and ? 400 million for 2005-06[6], whilst the 2005 Pre-Budget Report included another ? 580 million . The 2006 Budget report allocated ? 800 million for operations in 2006-07 and this was followed by ? 600 million in the 2006 Pre-Budget Report. Most recently, the 2007 Budget allocated a further 400million for 2007-08. Thus, to date, the total amount allocated to the Special Reserve is ? 7. 44 billion. The Special Reserve is not only set aside for costs in Iraq, but also for â€Å"the UK’s other international obligations†[7]. However, nowhere in the public domain has the Treasury published how much of the Special Reserve has been spent, nor how much of it has been spent on Iraq. Table 2 (please see pdf file above). , which gives a breakdown of the spending of the Special Reserve, was obtained through a Freedom of Information request solicited by the Iraq Analysis Group. Of the ? 6. 44bn set aside at various times to the Special reserve by March 2006, at least ? 6. 3bn had been allocated to departments, almost the total amount possible. About ? 4. 4bn of the Reserve had been spent by the Ministry of Defence in Iraq[8] between 2002 and 2006, with at least an additional ? 156 million allocated to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Development. Furthermore, the forecasted outturn for the financial year 2005-06 is larger than that of 2004-05, suggesting that costs in Iraq are still far from settling down to something approaching the spending in Afghanistan. How Much is ? 4. 4 Billion? The ? 4. 4 billion already allocated to operations in Iraq has been raised through the pre-existing tax structure, borrowing and other government revenue and consequently there exists some trade-off between the additional defence spending and other public spending options. ?3. 2 billion spent on education, for example, would be sufficient to fund the recruitment and retention of over 10,300 new teachers for ten years. In health, it would allow the building of around 44 new hospitals. The ? 6. 44 billion Special Reserve represents the entire annual budget of the Department of International Development and would allow a five-fold increase in bilateral aid to Africa[9]. According to UNICEF estimates, ? 5 billion would fund two years of full immunization for every child in the developing world[10]. Oil Prices Any sort of uncertainty in the Middle East is serious because of the possible effects on oil prices and, in turn, the possible effects on the economies of the rest of the world. Iraq is particularly significant because its proven oil reserves are 112 billion barrels or about 10 per cent of the worlds total. Iraqs reserves are second only to its neighbour Saudi Arabia. Further exploration is likely to significantly increase Iraqs proven reserves. Iraqs oil is also said to be very attractive because it is easy to recover and so production costs are among the lowest in the world. (2) Iraqs sustainable production is around 2. 8 2. 9 million barrels per day, with a net export potential of around 2. 3 2. 5 million barrels per day. Those figures compare with total world oil production of 68 million barrels per day and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production of 29 million barrels per day, or 42 per cent of the total. (3) The US is by far the biggest consumer of petroleum consuming 19. 6 million barrels per day of which net imports are 10. 9 million barrels per day. (4) Iraqs production potential is limited by aging infrastructure in poor repair. UN sanctions prevent the importation of spare parts and other necessary equipment. The volume of Iraqi exports permitted under UN sanctions (the oil-for-food program) is much lower at around 1. 6 million barrels per day; however, some additional oil is smuggled out of Iraq. According to the US Energy Information Agency some oil experts think that Iraqs oil production could double in the next few years provided sufficient investment were to be made and the UN sanctions lifted. (5) The prospect of continued and possibly expanded Iraqi production is behind some of the optimistic scenarios examined below. Also important have been statements by the OPEC to the effect that they would be able to cover any reduction in supplies from Iraq, despite suggestions that OPEC is producing near full capacity. (6) Any increase in non-OPEC production would also help moderate oil prices. In the longer term supplies from non-traditional sources, including Central Asian members of the former Soviet Union, could put downward pressure on prices. Oil prices have increased throughout most of 2002 and into 2003 from about US$20 per barrel in mid 2002 to around US$35 per barrel in early March 2003. There have been many commentators willing to suggest that oil prices may peak at much higher values. Bad case scenarios have been published that estimate oil prices increasing to US$75 per barrel by George Perry from the Brookings Institute and US$80 per barrel by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. (7) While such figures tend to be reported by the press, it needs to be kept in mind that these are only worst case scenarios. Large sudden price increases cannot be ruled out. However, it is important to note that war with Iraq has been widely anticipated and we would expect that the effects of war would be anticipated in the markets and already be reflected in prices. Against that, some observers suggest that a quick war without damage to Iraqs oil wells would eliminate the war premium and reduce prices to figures around US$20 per barrel. (8) Effects of Higher Oil Prices Oil price increases act like a tax on fuel that is collected by oil producers and transfers income from users to producers. It increases the burdens on users, and when the users are businesses, it increases the costs that they are likely to pass on to the consumer. The oil tax also involves major changes to international trade and investment flows. The 1970s oil price increases were associated with major disruptions to economic activity sparking international recession as well as inflation. The term stagflation was introduced to refer to the unusual combination of both higher inflation and unemployment that began during this period. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has done some work on the specific effects of higher world oil prices. Modelling the effect of a permanent US$5 per barrel increase in oil prices the IMF finds that world GDP would fall by 0. 2 per cent in year one and 0. 3 per cent in years two and three. There would be a roughly equal transfer of GDP (also around 0. 2 per cent) to oil producing countries from oil importing countries with additional transfers within countries. Other Macroeconomic Implications Oil prices will play a large part in the eventual outcomes of the war with Iraq. However, there are more than just the direct effects of oil prices involved. The world economy is going through a period of volatility and uncertainty partly associated with geo-political concerns. All economic commentators refer to the present uncertainty and its effects on both investors and consumers. In the case of Iraq, political uncertainty also has a direct impact on the rest of the world through oil prices. A common view seems to be that the uncertainty relates to the immediate future and that, once the Iraq problem is out of the way, everything will be clearer. For example, in his testimony to the US Congress, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, anticipates the removal of the Iraq-related uncertainties'(17) that seem to be complicating the present view of the world economy. Another observer has said: The common, hopeful view on Wall Street is that a short, decisive victory in a war with Iraq wouldnt cost much and would lead to a big stock market rally, which would be good for investor and consumer confidence. (18) While a war would obviously put pressure on the budget balance that in turn can have other implications for the economy as a whole. War is not necessarily bad for the economy. It is now well known that the rearmament of the major powers in the late 1930s and 1940s, before and during the Second World War, was associated with the end of the great depression of the 1930s. As one student of this period puts it: The Second World War brought the era of the Depression to a sudden and dramatic end, as the entire resources of the major countries were absorbed in the military struggle. With the outbreak of hostilities, full employment was fairly swiftly achieved everywhere. (19) Obviously there is nothing on the horizon that looks anything like the Second World War, but there is likely to be some fiscal stimulus nevertheless. The 200203 budget papers note that fiscal stimulus generally has the effect of supporting the aggregate level of economic activity. As the 200203 budget papers put it: Expansionary fiscal policy settings in 200001 and 200102 helped Australia maintain solid economic growth relative to other developed countries during a period of weakness in the international economy A large part of the stimulus in 200102 was unavoidable given the impact of high priority defence and domestic security expenditure. This outcome is appropriate given Australias recent economic circumstances and international developments. (20) To the extent that there are under-utilised resources in Australia, government spending can lead to an increase economic activity and employment. However, the fiscal stimulus must be put in the context of the damaging effects of the uncertainty facing the world economy. The uncertainty surrounding the war is undoubtably having a negative effect on investment and consumption decisions all around the world. Given that the fiscal stimulus is rather small even in the US, it might be expected that the uncertainty will more than offset any stimulus. However, a short quick war would remove uncertainty allowing the fiscal stimulus to dominate. In this context there are some forecasts that suggest the outcome could be positive for the UK economy, for example. Oxford Economic Forecasting made such a forecast showing modest GDP increases of around 0. 2 per cent in the UK as a result of the stimulus from military spending. (21) Newsletter Economic Scenarios has attempted to model the economic effects of a hypothetical Iraqi war on the Australian economy. (22) The outcome of the Economic Scenarios modelling is that, over the period 200310, Australia would experience a loss in GDP equivalent to US$18 billion in the short war scenario (war is over in 2003 and rebuilding takes two years) or US$69 billion in the long war scenario (conflict and occupation of five years and five years of rebuilding). Using exchange rates at close of business 26 February 2003 puts the loss in GDP at $30 billion (short) to $114 billion (long). These results suggest a very significant adverse impact on Australia. However, those results reflect the nature of the economic model and some possibly extreme assumptions, including that: * Australian government defence outlays increase by one per cent of GDP in 2003 and either 1 or 0. 5 per cent for the next few years depending on the scenario * oil prices jump immediately to US$80 per barrel and then either slowly return to near normal or return quickly depending on the scenario, and * uncertainty has an effect equivalent to investors demanding 5 per cent in greater returns on their investments causing investment outlays to fall. That premium on investments fades away either slowly or quickly depending on the scenario. The first assumption is just a guess based on Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US will spend something of that order and that small countries involved will likely spend similar amounts as a share of GDP. One percent of Australias GDP is around $7 billion. Access Economics puts the likely costs of war at around $700 million for a three month engagementa tenth of the Economic Scenarios assumption. Access Economics also estimates that over $200 million has already been spent in pre-deployment. (23) Even then, reallocating resources within the Defence Department could absorb a good deal of the $700 million. The Economic Scenarios study received headlines because it purported to show a massive cost to the Australian economy as a result of war in Iraq. However, those models are only as good as the assumptions on which they rest, and if the assumptions are extreme then results will be unrealistic.

Origins And History Of The Dulcimer :: essays research papers

Origins and History of The Dulcimer The dulcimer is a member of the string family. It is further categorized into the Psaltrey family, a group of instruments that are comprised of strings stretched across a frame and played by plucking or drumming. The only difference, in fact, between the dulcimer and the psaltrey is the fact that one is plucked and the other is drummed. The dulcimer family is divided into two sections. The dulcimers with keys and dulcimers without keys. A dulcimer with keys would be played by depressing a key which would move a mechanism that would cause a hammer to strike the string. The most improved instrument in the keyed dulcimer section is the piano. Dulcimers that are played without the aid of a key are usually in the unusual shape of a trapezoid. Early descriptions of this instrument, dating back to the Middle Ages, describe the instrument as a rectangular box with strings stretched over two bridges. Both the single and the double bridged dulcimers are common in traditional Irish music. It is played by striking the strings with padded wooden hammer. It is commonly believed that the dulcimer came to Europe from the East sometime in the fifteenth century. This cannot be true. The dulcimer is closely related to the yang ch'in from China. However, the yang ch'in was introduced to the Chinese around 1800. A similar traditional dulcimer found its way to Korea in about 1725. The dulcimer originated as the santir in what is now Iraq from a Greek instrument, the psalterion. The santir was a trapeziodal box covered with strings. It was played by striking the strings with light sticks. From there the Arabs carried the santir through North Africa where it was integrated into the Jewish culture. From North Africa it was taken to Spain, for a carving was discovered in the cathedral Santiago de Compostela, dated 1184. It is unknown why the Irish make mention of the timpan, a generic term for any member of the psaltrey family, being used by St. Patrick in the 6th century, six hundred years earlier than the dulcimers first introduction into Spain from North Africa. Dulcimers gained popularity from the churches and cathedrals throughout the 14th century. But in the 16th century, as the violin and wind instruments became increasingly fashionable, the dulcimer virtually disappeared. For the next two hundred years it went unnoticed. In 1705 Pantaleon Hebenstreit presented the French King Louis XIV with a slightly revised dulcimer.

Child Labor and Sweatshops

Child Labor and Sweatshops â€Å"We must ensure that while eliminating child labor in the export industry, we are also eliminating their labor from the informal sector, which is more invisible to public scrutiny- and thus leaves the children more open to abuse and exploitation. † (â€Å"Carol Bellamy†). The topic of child labor is a global phenomenon that has millions of people heartbroken, held captive, and pleased with the work it has fulfilled. It has been around for countless years and is still occurring today. Usually, no awareness is brought to child labor. Some people just see it as a way of living.Although there are many laws against child labor, all that is physically done are three or four sentence articles in the newspaper about how it’s banned. Owners of sweatshops and billion dollar companies do not see the suffering they are putting infant workers through. Child labor negatively impacts individuals, society, and the economy due to the large producti vity and cheap labor. Although child labor does not have a select year when it began, some might say it began at the dawn of men. Children have been worked since the beginning of time and may never end in some countries due to rulers, money issues, and beliefs.In the early 1800's, machines were starting to replace hand labor for making most manufactured items. Everywhere from Asia to North America, factories began to increase. Children began operating the power-driven machines. Mostly because children were easier and cheaper to hire than adults. Growing into the mid-1800's, child labor became a major social issue. Children have always worked. But factories needed them more than before. Working in a factory is no walk in the park, especially for a child. A child with a factory job could easily work 12 to 18 hours a day. They could work seven days a week just to earn a dollar (â€Å"Herumin 38†).Children as early as seven years old would be forced to tend machines in spinning m ills or carry heavy loads all day. The working children had no time to play or receive and education (â€Å"Herumin 41†). Under all the harsh conditions in the factories, children often became ill. Illnesses that occurred during these time periods because of child labor included: HIV/AIDS, starvation, small pox, anemia, the flu, a cold that escalated, and thousands of other reasons. Hence, significant populations of children were dying. Most of the children who were involved in child labor came from poor families.By 1810, about 200,000,000 school age children were working 50-70 hours a week. Sometimes, parents could not afford to keep up will all the expenses children came with, so, they turned them over to a factory owner or different family. These families had no mercy; they could have 11 year old boys working for 60 hours for dollars a day. Under these circumstances, children were ordered under strict rules and had to obey all the orders given to them. Finally, people saw the cruelty that was occurring. Petitions began, companies shut down, and people started adopting the children that were going through that pain. The English writer Charles Dickens helped publicize the evils of child labor with his novel Oliver Twist. Britain was first to pass laws regulating child labor† (â€Å"History of Child Labor†). Therefore, Britain recognized the cruelty. Overtime a series of laws shortened working hours, improved the conditions, and raised the age children could work (â€Å"History of Child Labor†). People started to get a sense of mind and child labor began to dim down in Europe. In the United States it took many years to outlaw child labor. By 1899, a total of 28 states started ruling against child labor. American children worked in large numbers in mines, glass factories, textiles, agriculture, canneries, home industries, and as newsboys, messengers, bootblacks, and peddlers† (â€Å"Child Labor in U. S History†). Organiza tions such as the National Consumers League and the National Child Labor Committee worked to end child labor. They started to provide free education options around the country. â€Å"The New England Association of Farmers, Mechanics and other workingmen resolve that ‘Children should not be allowed to labor in the factories from morning till night, without any time for healthy recreation and mental culture,’ for it ‘endangers their . . well-being and health’ (â€Å"Child Labor in U. S History). Most people know about child labor, although no one will ever know the pain and suffering better than the victims of child labor. The interviews child laborers talk in can crush hearts. Children in our very own country go through that every day. â€Å"A nine year old girl toils under the hot sun making bricks from morning until night, seven days a week. Trafficked with her family from Bihar†¦ India. She lives in terrible conditions† (â€Å"Sweatshops an d Child Labor†). These heartbreak and heinous acts happen to children every day.Nevertheless, today these children are more likely than not brought to awareness. Nike has been accused of child labor and this has been an ongoing deal for many years. One accusation about Nike is their soccer balls, which are made in Pakistan by child laborers. While Pakistan has laws against child labor and slavery, the Pakistani government has done nothing about this (â€Å"Child labor and sweatshops 17†). Another accusation about Nike is, â€Å"Nike founder Philip H. Knight pays child workers in Indonesia about $2. 20 a day while his own stock in Nike is worth 4. 5 billion dollars† (â€Å"Child Labor and Sweatshops 17†).Under these circumstances, Nike has been questioned by the public and judged. Walt Disney's company has also been accused of supporting child labor overseas. Their workers are in vile conditions, diminishing their basic rights, and exploiting their innocenc e. As one of the most least responsive companies, Disney takes the lead. â€Å"Disney, which makes children clothes. The billion dollar companies depend on workers in Haiti who make 28 cents an hour† (â€Å"Child Labor and Sweatshops 18†). While providing cheap labor, the children are defenseless against the torture they endure.Disney workers in Haiti stitch Aladdin t-shirts. In Vietnam, girls work for 17 cents, seven days a week making toys. In china, young boys and girls make Disney story books. Meanwhile, the CEO of Disney, Michael Eisner, makes $102,000 per hour. Since this is true Walt Disney’s company has been looked at in a different sort of light by millions. Many organizations today take a stand against child labor. â€Å"The International Initiative on Exploitative Child Labor (IIECL), also commonly known as the International Initiative to End Child Labor, is a US-based, not-for-profit [US IRS approved 501 (c) (3)] organization, founded n 1998 and inc orporated in 1999, that conducts and/or provides education, training, technical assistance, capacity building, research, social accountability auditing, resources, program planning and design, and monitoring and evaluation services to public and private sector, non-governmental organizations, and international research and development institutions that seek to eliminate the worst forms of child labor in the United States and around the world† (â€Å"About IIECL†). Their initiative is to eliminate the vilest forms of child labor all around the world and they are working on that today.An impact to stop child labor would be â€Å"Rugmark†. Society is recommending â€Å"Rugmark† which is a company that makes hand woven carpets. Rugmark guarantees the use of child labor free rugs. Its fight against child labor has already created a worldwide point; we can have a carpet company, or any company, and not slave at children all day to create these magnificent carpet s. Another current organization working to abolish child labor is the International Labor Organization (ILO). The ILO estimates that about 215 million children around the world toil in child labor today.Of these, more than half work in hazardous conditions. (â€Å"Shining a Light†¦ †). More than 60 percent of this child labor is forced. People across the globe understand that forcing child labor is against human rights. Most agree children should not be in positions where their stability is at risk. To stop this, the ILO goes to countries and helps the children in need. â€Å"Reporting is only one of the vital tools we use to protect workers worldwide. Since 1995, the Department of Labor has funded more than 250 projects in over 90 countries, which have benefited almost 1. million children worldwide. These efforts remove children from exploitative labor and provide them with education and other services† (â€Å"Shining a Light†¦ †) Today, every state i n America and the federal government has laws against child labor. These laws have cured millions of hopeless children lives. We are one of the many few countries who have this law and take action for it. Nearly sixty percent of Ethiopian children are put to work, earning about a dollar a month. In Pakistan, children continue to be used as slaves. Most of the labor offences occur in the nation's Punjab province, which is a global supplier of stitched rugs, musical instruments and sports equipment† (â€Å"Child Labor is Making†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ) Thus, this proves many countries today do not recognize child labor as severely as they do in the United States. Lastly, the worst country in the world where child labor is one hundred percent present is Myanmar (Burma). Forty percent of the country’s children never enroll in school. The Burmese army recruits start at age twelve.Children who don’t join the army are forced into child labor. All these heinous acts are what orga nizations like the ILO are trying to abolish, but the countries government, is letting this happen. Since this is true and it has been going about for hundreds of years, the chances are slim to none that the government in Myanmar will change. Child labor until recently has not been recognized as a global issue. Developing countries continued, as they had for centuries, not giving a care who or how imported goods were made.The practice of child labor left children neglected, abused, and starved. The children’s bosses would not care if they did not eat for hours for days. When children as young as five years old are abducted and thrown into this slavery, they usually do not escape the poverty among them. This is why socially, the ILO and other organizations realized this truth and are working to help children every day. Economically, companies such as Rugmark guarantee a hand woven rug that is one hundred percent not made from children.The victims themselves can only be brought out of the darkness of child labor and share their stories so one day this nation will be child labor free. Works Cited Child Labor Facts. N. p. , n. d. Web. 16 Jan. 2013. . Child Labor in US History. N. p. , n. d. Web. 12 Dec. 2012. . Child Labor Is Making a Disturbing Resurgence around the World. Luke McKenna, 6 Jan. 2012. Web. 17 Jan. 2013.

What Does Cest-à-dire Mean in French

Cest-à  -dire  is a common expression in French and you can use it when you want to say I mean or that is. Its a way to clarify what youre trying to explain and you will find it very useful in conversations. The Meaning of  Cest-à  -dire Cest-à  -dire is pronounced  say ta deer. It literally translates to mean that is to say and uses the French verb dire  (to say). However, we most often translate it to that is or I mean. You can even use it to vocalize the written example of i.e. The expression  is used to explain or expand upon something that was just said. You might also use it to ask for clarification. In informal writing,  cest-à  -dire  may be abbreviated to  c-à  -d,  cà  d, or even  cad. The phrase is within the normal register, meaning that it is part of everyday language. In French, its acceptable to say it in both formal and informal settings. Examples of  Cest-à  -dire  in Context There are many situations in which you might use the phrase. Essentially, any time you need to clarify, you can rely on  cest-à  -dire. Il faut à ©crire ton nom là  , cest-à  -dire, ici. -  You need to write your name there, I mean, here.Un traducteur, cest-à  -dire quelquun qui rà ©crit les documents dans une autre langue... -  A translator, that is, someone who rewrites documents in another language...Je dois travailler ce soir, cest-à  -dire que je ne peux pas aller au cinà © avec toi. -  I have to work tonight, which means I cant go to the movies with you. As another example, you might use the phrase in a conversation such as this: Il faut que tu commences à   y mettre du tien ici.  - You need to start pulling your weight around here.Cest-à  -dire ?  - Meaning? / What does that mean?Cest-à  -dire que tu vas nous aider à   faire le mà ©nage.  - It means youre going to help us out with the housework.